The Hamburg Port Authority (HPA) once again commissioned the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics to write up a forecast on future handling volumes of the Port of Hamburg. According to the new survey, the container traffic has been developing as expected since 2012. In 2014, the total market volume of 40.9 million standard containers (TEU) in the port of the North Range and Hamburg’s 9.4 million TEUs (market share 23.1 per cent) slightly exceeded expections, HPA says.
Container Traffic Forecast
In the overall market, 41.6 million TEU were achieved, with Hamburg reporting 9.7 million TEU and a 23.4 per cent market share. Despite the broad consensus on the actual and expected economic development, the prognosis for the development in container traffic for the years 2020 and 2025 was revised downwards. Reasons for this decision lie in the delay of the anticipated deepening of the Elbe fairway and adjusted estimates due to new terminal capacity in Rotterdam (Maasvlakte II).
In 2030, the disparity between projection and reality will decrease, as the fairway deepening and excess terminal capacity in the North Range ports will unfold their potential, with market shares returning from Rotterdam back to Hamburg. In the long term, a modest growth in Russia will also cause Hamburg’s handling turnover to slightly increase again.
For 2030, the forecasts of container throughput averages at 18.1 million TEU, with various scenarios spanning a corridor from 14.7 to 22.2 million TEU in 2030. When excluding the most extreme scenarios, 16.3 to 20.5 million TEU are most probable by 2030. The estimates by the readjustment in 2013 thus meet the updated forecast corridor says HPA.
Conventional General Cargo
In recent years, the traffic of conventional general cargo suffered from a development already determined as risk factor in previous forecasts: the widespread containerisation of conventional fruit. While the years 2005-2008 still saw 600,000-770,000 tonnes of fruit handled conventionally, figures fell to 150,000 tonnes in 2013. By 2030, fruit handling will be fully containerised, forecasts anticipate. Next to fruit, also the conventional imports of metal declined by more than 400,000 metric tonnes, a decrease partly due to sustained structural changes.
For the handling of conventional general cargo, a volume of approximately two million tonnes per year is now being expected in the long term. The 2010 forecast still saw a potential of three million tonnes.
Hardly Any Changes With Dry Bulk Cargo
In the segment of dry bulk cargo, no fundamentally new developments have taken place, and also in view of the future, only little will change. The most significant development in coming years will be the increase in coal imports to feed the new Moorburg power plant. After an increase in turnover to around 32 million tonnes by 2020 as anticipated by the baseline scenario, now other changes are expected in the long term.
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